To earn on races

J.L. Kelly`s formula works for sport bookmachers` games as well. What is more, here as well- suggested bets on given events are calculated in a specific and profitable for the bookmache way. Only excellent knowledge about a given sport event can give us some predominance.

Internet bookmachers offer the highest rates due to very low costs of running the business. Their companies are usually registered in the countries where this kind of activity is tax free (i.e. Malta). The players do not need to pay the tax either.

What is the mechanism of setting the rates?

Let`s just say that there are two teams playing-Team A and Team B. Now, if the bookmacher thinks that Team A is a favourite, he suggests betting its win with a pay rate of i.e/$1.95 (for each $ bet on Team A the pay is $1.95- the net profit is $0.95).Teams B win is estimated the same way (because Team B is thought to be weaker-the higher get is offered for its win- i.e. $3.55 for a win and $3.22 for a draw).

Neither the bookmacher nor the players know the exact values of the results` probability obviously. They are estimated on the basis of the analysis of "the sport events market". The actual teams position, which is reflected in the recent results, is taken into consideration.

To make the game fair (the win expected value equals zero) offered rates should be equal to the reciprocal of the estimated result of the game.

For example: if the probability that team C wins with team D equals 1.4, then a suggested pay rate would be 4 to 1.

If we estimate that the chances of a win for Team D equal ¾, then the pay rate for that event should be 4/3- that is about 1.33 to1.

However, it is not the reality.

The bookmacher is the one who runs this business to make a profit and sets the rates on a little bit lower level, that is- K1<1/P1, K2</1/P2 and K3<1/P3.

(K1 is the event pay rate of probability P1 etc.).

The value Z=1/K1+1/K2+1/K3 is bigger than one and shows how much the bookmacher is going to make independently of the results of the game.

The bigger Z is than one, the more "greedy" the bookmacher is.

Comparing the rates of a few tens of bookmachers we can find such bets which Z value is less than one (obviously, never at the same bookmacher`s). In this case, skillful betting of contrary results of the same event at different bookmacher`s ,regardless the result, will grant us some profit.

Different thematic internet services engage themselves in looking for such rates (so called arbitrary situations),analyse and compare them

Now, let`s compare the rates at different bookmachers`. The example is completely fictional.It was designed by the author in order to illustrate the discussed issue.

Be careful, you will have to make some calculations. It can be quite exhausting for those not used to it but what would not you do for money.

Andrzej Golota vs Mike Tyson in the final of a boxing match.

Expert bookmacher sets the rate of Gołota`s win as K1a=2.50 and for Tyson`s win K2a=1.50.

You get Za=1/K1a+1/K2a=1.066, which means that about 6.6% of stake money goes to the bookmacher`s pocket.

Other bookmacher – Velifex- thinks that Golota`s win chances are bigger so he sets the rate: K1b=2.00 and K2b=1.73 in case of Tyson`s win.

After putting these data into the formula, you get Zb=1/K1b+1/K2b=1.078. (that bookmacher gets more – 7.8%).

Let`s calculate Z value when betting Golota`s win at Expert and Tyson`s win at Velifex.

You get Z=1/K1a+1/K2b=0.978.

This value is les than one! Thus, you can see that such a "mixed" bet, less than one, guarantees you a profit.

Now, why don`t you try to win $100. If you think that Golota wins, it is worth betting it where they pay the most, that is at Expert`s. The rate is 2.50. In order to win $100 you have to play for $40. And you bet Tyson`s win at Velifex. Here the rate is 1.73, so you have to play for $57.80 to win $100.

That way, by investing 97.80 (40+57.80) you earn $100 regardless the result of the match.

The net profit is certain and equals $2.20. If you invest a sum ten times higher, then the net profit will raise ten times up to $22.

Internet services mentioned above offer searching for the differences in bets, there is a fee obviously, you have to pay for some good information, and guarantee about 5% sometimes even more (up to14%). No bank will guarantee such a profit so quickly.

The only weakness and disadvantage of this kind of solution is the fact that it would be a good idea to have a few accounts at different bookmachers (there is a lot of them all around the world). Those accounts .with considerable sums of money, would allow you to play at a reasonable level.