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Introduction

  • How to play ...
  • Formula says
  • Can we bet?
  • Conspiracy theories
  • How to do it?
  • Worth betting draws
  • Make money
  • Do you gamble?

    Mathematics

  • Win or lose
  • Red & Black
  • Martingale System
  • To earn lunch
  • Paint gives a chance
  • Playing va banque
  • Kelly`s Criterion
  • To earn on races
  • Well defined risk

  •   

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    Why is it worth betting draws?


    They are the most difficult to guess so they are awarded with the highest rates. Usually, when there are two teams playing, there is a favourite between them. Besides, the teams are playing to win. If they were only interested in a draw, there would be no motivation. It would be just a defensive game. Further more, the event itself would not be that exciting. It reminds me of the last Euro 2004 where in the match Sweden vs Denmark the draw 2:2 was good enough for both teams to qualify. Most bookmachers did not accept any bets on that result. Obviously there is no need to mention the result of the match.

    It seems that apart from Mathematics the knowledge of psychology comes in handy in gambling.

    There would be no gambling without psychology. People`s choices are often completely independent of mathematical calculations.

    Do people follow their emotions when they cross out the numbers on a Lotto sheet or choose their "lucky" number?

    Someone once said that he guessed "five" when he picked the numbers of Chicago Bulls players.

    From a mathematical point of view every class of drawn numbers is equally probable. The combination of 1,2,3,4,5,6 has the same chances of being drawn as any other combination. But hardly anyone picks it because it seems impossible. Whereas, if that kind of unusual combination drops out ,it is very unlikely that we will have to share the winnings with someone else.

    On the other hand, if we keep choosing the same numbers, like other players, then the winnings can be disappointing. A lot of people think of coupons as if they were darts board, they try to choose the middle numbers. Sometimes they pick the numbers accordingly to some kind of a symmetrical pattern. Plenty of psychological research show people`s "irrational" behaviour towards gambling, some kind of illusion, tendency in perception.

    Tell me about it. When I lose a few times in a row, I keep playing and count that good luck will soon be back. And the winning is so close.

    All we know is that casino games are designed in such a way so that the guests lose more than win. So, how does it happen that casinos do not go bankrupt?

    From the mathematical point of view accepting a game in a casino is irrational- the average result of our game in the casino is always unprofitable for us.

    But someone who visits the casino does not think about any average results. The players focus on single games where they can win a lot, and believe to be lucky. What is more, if they manage to win a few times, the temptation is to keep playing. Why? Because that irregular stimulus is working(the winnings).

    The same mechanism works when we do our job- let`s recall – how did we react about that unexpected bonus money? We are more motivated by that irregular bonus than our regular wages.

    So, sometimes we play until we are on the rocks, hoping for that illusive though profitable winnings.

    Of course, it is not the only reason. It can be the case of feeling exceptional or being born with a silver spoon in our mouth.

    A desire to win may result from the material situation. Have you ever wondered why the poor, almost on the verge of poverty, are the ones who play Lotto? Their way of thinking usually is:

    "I am so poor that I have nothing to lose".

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